The radical change of TV

At the plusminusitv convention last thursday, there was an interesting discussion about the future of tv. I didn’t got the chance to give my opinion during the panel discussion, but I would like to write it down, because I think a lot of people underestimate the impact and speed of the change that is going on at this moment.

I consider myself as part of a generation that has a different perception of the traditional media, we were one of the first generations to really grow up with the internet. I’m using the internet since I was 11 – 12 years old. The possibilities then were nothing compared to what’s possible now. I’m only saying this so you’ll understand that the perception of traditional media will change more radically if you look at younger generations. My brother of 14 loves to listen to bbc radio one. The music he likes is not available in Belgium. Those (+-)kids aren’t restricted anymore to the media available in Belgium. The traditional media becomes less important, they just choose the information they want from the internet(audio – text – images – video – …).

If you look at studies about iDTV you see a lot of traditional patterns coming back. Studies say that prime time stays prime time and that popular channels will stay popular also when you have like 112 other channels available. Well I’m not pretending that those studies are incorrect, they are definatelly true. But I don’t think they will be true if you only look at the new generation of people. Why? Because the younger generations are growing out of the traditional patterns. When they become 25 they don’t need the traditional tv anymore to stay informed. They will choose what to watch when to watch it. When they need information about a recent newsfact they’re first reflex is not waiting for the 7 o’clock news, they will first check the internet.

If we take a look at the current iDTV model in Belgium, it can be interesting for the 35+ segment, but for the new younger generations it will fail. It has almost no extra value for people who are familiar with the internet. Maybe some good movies or series, but I’m sure that in the future they will be available for download from the moment they are released. I don’t think young people want to wait untill lost season 2 for example gets aired on a Belgian tv channel. They are in touch with the whole world trough the internet. They want to be able to access the same information at the same time as the people who live in the USA. My brother is a fanatic runescape player. He talks with his friends from all over the world, he get’s information from all over the world, he wants to be able to view the same cool tv shows as his friends abroad. Often it’s impossible to access that information the legal way so often those kids get it from bittorrent, P2P, … I think it’s pretty logical, they want to be able to talk about the same tv programs their friends talk about. I’m just trying to explain how important it is, not to underestimate the changes this will bring to tv in the future:

  • The internet will be the main channel for everything: communication, information, entertainement, … The new generation just wants different screens and different interaction methods to access that information, communication and entertainment. Cell phone, screen in the living room, laptop, … every device has access to the internet, to the same information, communication, entertainment.
  • Selection will become incredibly important, tv channels will need to evolve to a brand that makes selections of worldwide shows. They will do nothing more than select very specific programs.
  • The TV channels will have a stronge community around the brand with very faithfull viewers. They will be able to give feedback to channel, that feedback will be an important factor in decisions taken by the TV channel.
  • Poweruser will need to be able to make the selection themselves. Other users can subscribe to their selection, just like RSS works today. You’ll be able to view the programs you want on demand. If you think this is the future you’re wrong : democracy player, veoh, uTorrent , … Those tools just need a rss feed and will automatically download the programs you selected.
  • The link between the information viewed in the program and other information available on the internet will be very strong. If you’re looking at a touristic program, you’ll be able to immediatelly check the flight rates to that location. Or plan your route on google maps to that specific location. This will be an important commercial value. Give the viewers the right commercial information at the right time.
  • The other way around can also be important, if your browsing google earth, you can view touristic tv programs, news items about that specific location.
  • Production companies need a web service that gives access to all their tv programs.

I know these are pretty progressive ideas, but if I look at my own environment and things happening on the internet. I’m pretty sure tv is evolving this way. I believe Belgian tv stations urgently need to start experimenting with this new evolutions. What will be the value of Lost season 2 for VT4 if ABC made it available for download FREE? TV stations urgently need to look for new business models, if they want to keep there privileged place in the market.

Related:
The ironic future of traditional media
Microsoft: IPTV to reach critical mass this year

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  3. Jesse, we had this conversation a few weeks ago, since I couldn’t convince you then. Let’s try it again.I’m also a very skeptical guy when it concerns reports, especially iTV reports. But I’m also a strong believer in evolution in stead of revolution, so I don’t really believe in the “the internet is going to be everywhere”-story. I think you underestimate the power of the main broadcasters and the content they provide, especially in Flanders.Let’s take for example the news. You can read about news-topics in all kinds of different media: tv, radio, print, internet, … If you want you can be informed about everything what’s happening in the world without even leaving your room. And still … even if people are reading De Morgen, clicking on vrtnieuws.net and listening to the radio news bulletins, there are still about 2 million Flemish people watching the news at 7 on either VTM or één. (although they can also watch it at 13h, 18h, around 23h, the whole night on één and even the whole day though iDTV for free) That’s 1 on 5 people in Flanders ! You can contradict now, by saying that especially adults will watch the news on tv, which is true off course. But there’s also the “habbit”-factor that determines the behavior of a lot of viewers. When I was young, me and my sister would hide the remote control, so my dad couldn’t find it at 19h when he wanted to watch the news. But these days, it’s that same sister who puts the news on every evening. Even if she’s doing something else, the news will be on at 19h, as it will in a lot of Flemish homes.Maybe to proof my case even more, I’ll use another example: Big Brother. This is called the number one case study when it concerns cross-media tv-programs and interactivity. Plus: it’s a program that has a majority of young viewers. Again, those viewers can get there information all over the place: the popular newspapers write about it almost every day, BelgacomTV payed (way to much) money to show it to their customers 24/7, on the site you can find out the whole day through what’s happening … and still: Big Brother on this moment is the most watched program on TV by a young audience, even more popular then Lost II on VT4.I can go on for a while like this …Also, don’t underestimate the current “brandpower” of a lot of media-channels. Everybody wants to watch the Woestijnvis-programs on één, TMF is for the more commercial youngsters, while MTV will program the music-programs for the more alternative people. You can really get to know somebody just by looking at which channel they mostly watches (of course they will never admit if they watche VTM, VijfTV or Vitaya)My conclusion: the internet-way of getting information is not going to take over the tv-experience. I strongly believe in media working together in stead of trying to compete with each other, a cross-media-approach has proven to be a success-factor in several programs. To make iDTV work in the whole cross-media chain, you’ll need to exploit its added value: it’s interactivity. And I’m the first one to admit, that this isn’t happening at the moment. This has several reasons: technology isn’t really ready for high-level interactivity, there’s a lack in interactive concepts, … and the main reason in Belgium: nobody really wants to try out those things. On this moment all the initiatives are coming from the distributors. That’s like letting Scarlet pay you to make a website, so that people would be eager to get a Scarlet-internet connection to read your content. :sI think you’ve got an interesting theory, but way to progressive according to my standards. But I know some station managers and ISP’s who would love to agree with you 😉

  4. Thanks for your comment Ken, it’s nice to see how opinions differ so much. Maybe in a year or so we will know who was right. Is this the nerd speaking in me? or can I say : “We live in exiting times… ” :p

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